NJ could lose representation and federal funding under Trump census proposal, AG warns

A coalition of 24 attorneys general and two governors says proposed changes to the census could exclude more than 600,000 New Jersey residents and undermine the accuracy of population counts.

New Jersey could lose political representation in Congress and millions of dollars in federal funding under proposed changes to the 2030 U.S. Census that would exclude hundreds of thousands of immigrants from the state’s population count, according to Attorney General Jennifer Davenport and a coalition of state officials.

Davenport is co-leading a coalition of 24 attorneys general and two governors opposing the Trump administration’s proposed changes to how the federal government counts residents and collects demographic information.

In a 39-page letter submitted to the U.S. Department of Commerce on Monday, Nov. 2, the coalition warned that the changes would violate the Constitution, distort population numbers, and undermine the ability of state and local governments to plan for public services.

The coalition estimates that roughly 16.1 million people nationwide could be excluded from the census, including at least 600,000 New Jersey residents, or more than 6% of the state’s population. The New Jersey figure is based on estimates of the state’s undocumented immigrant population in 2023 and does not include all other noncitizens who could be excluded.

“Everyone counts in New Jersey, just as the Constitution requires. The proposed census rule ignores that constitutional mandate and would undercount our population,” Davenport said in a statement. “This would lead to the loss of an untold amount of federal funding for critical services and programs that touch all of our lives and our communities, including for vital public safety initiatives.”

The census, conducted every 10 years, determines how many seats each state receives in the U.S. House of Representatives. Its population figures also help determine how federal funding is distributed to states and communities for education, transportation, health care, infrastructure, and other public services.

Changes to the count could have consequences for New Jersey that extend well beyond the 2030 Census, affecting congressional representation and government funding throughout the following decade.

Who would be excluded from the census?

Under the proposal published by the U.S. Census Bureau on Sept. 10, only U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents, commonly known as green card holders, would be included in the population count for congressional representation.

Millions of other immigrants living in the United States would be excluded, including people with work, student, or family visas and immigrants who have lived in the country for years without permanent resident status.

The administration argues that the Constitution’s requirement to count people for congressional representation should apply to those with “sufficient ties or allegiance to the United States.” In its proposed rule, the Census Bureau maintains that its interpretation would better fulfill the constitutional purpose of the census and improve the accuracy of population data.

The attorneys general dispute that interpretation. The 14th Amendment requires congressional seats to be apportioned according to the “whole number of persons in each State,” a standard the coalition says includes residents regardless of citizenship or immigration status. The coalition also argues that the proposal would violate the federal Census Act, which requires the government to determine each state’s total population for congressional apportionment.

According to the letter, no previous decennial census has excluded residents solely because of their immigration status.

The consequences would not be evenly distributed across the country. States with larger immigrant populations, including New Jersey, California, and New York, could lose congressional representation relative to states with smaller immigrant populations.

Because Electoral College votes are partly determined by the number of congressional seats each state receives, changes to population counts could also affect presidential elections.

Federal funding and local services at risk

The coalition warned that excluding immigrants from the population count could reduce federal funding without reducing the demand for government services.

States and municipalities use census figures to determine where schools, hospitals, public transportation, emergency services, and other resources are needed. Immigrants who are excluded from the census would still live in their communities, use roads and public services, and send their children to school.

New Jersey’s Office of New Americans, for example, uses census information to assess the need for refugee resettlement programs and services that help immigrants integrate into their communities.

Inaccurate population counts could also complicate the process of redrawing legislative and local government districts, which must meet constitutional standards for equal representation.

The coalition did not estimate how much federal funding New Jersey could lose under the proposal.

Changes to how residency is determined

The administration is also proposing to change how the census determines where people live.

Since the first census in 1790, the federal government has counted people at their usual residence, meaning the place where they live and sleep most of the time.

The proposed rules would instead determine residency based on where a person lawfully spends the greatest number of days between Jan. 3 and April 1 of the census year, using tax records as evidence of residency.

The attorneys general warned that the new approach could count people in states or communities where they do not ordinarily live.

For example, someone who spends the winter at a vacation home could be counted there rather than at their permanent residence. A person who moves to another state shortly before Census Day on April 1 could be counted at their former address.

The coalition also raised concerns about using tax documents to determine residency. College students may be listed as dependents at their parents’ homes, military personnel may file taxes in states where they no longer live, and some taxpayers use business addresses or post office boxes.

The letter argues that the Census Bureau has not adequately explained how it would resolve conflicting information or test the new system before 2030.

Eliminating race and ethnicity questions

Another proposed change would eliminate questions about race and ethnicity from the decennial census and prohibit questions about sexual orientation.

Race has been included in the census since 1790. Sexual orientation has not been included in the traditional decennial census, but the proposed rule would prohibit its inclusion in future population-counting questionnaires.

The administration argues that such questions are unnecessary for the census’s primary constitutional purpose of counting residents for congressional representation and could discourage participation.

The attorneys general counter that demographic information is essential for enforcing civil rights laws, identifying disparities in public services, and evaluating government programs.

For example, New Jersey used demographic information from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to develop its 2025 Direct Care Workforce Strategic Plan, which examined the racial, ethnic, and immigration characteristics of workers who care for older adults and people with disabilities.

The coalition warned that eliminating detailed demographic information from the census could weaken the data used to evaluate whether workforce policies are reaching the populations they are intended to serve.

The attorneys general also argued that other federal surveys cannot fully replace the detailed demographic information collected through the decennial census, particularly for smaller communities.

Coalition calls for withdrawal

The proposed changes have not been finalized. The Census Bureau accepted public comments through Nov. 2. The coalition is urging the Census Bureau to withdraw the proposal rather than proceed with changes. The federal government has not yet issued a final rule.

In addition to New Jersey, the coalition includes attorneys general from Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and the District of Columbia, along with the governors of Kentucky and Pennsylvania.